This question requires you to analyze the dataset “presvote.csv”. It contains data on presidential election vote shares for the party of the incumbent president from 1948 to 2004. The variables are defined in the spreadsheet.
(a) What is the average and standard deviation of the incumbent's share of the two-party popular vote, incumbent party's share of the electoral vote, percentage change in GNP in the early part of the election year, and the incumbent president's July popularity?
(b) Construct a histogram of the incumbent's share of the two-party popular vote. Does it suggest any general incumbent party advantage in presidential elections?
(c) What is the correlation between the incumbent party's popular vote share and electoral college vote share? How can you explain the difference in their standard deviations?
(d) Use a regression model to determine the effect of election year change in Gross National Product (GNP) on the incumbent party's two-party popular vote share. Report the regression line and R2 and interpret the coefficients.
(e) How would you expect the election year change in GNP and the incumbent president's popularity in July are correlated? What is their correlation?
(f) Estimate a multiple regression model of incumbent party popular vote share with both election year GNP change and incumbent president popularity as covariates. Report the regression line and R2 and interpret the coefficients. Why does the effect of GNP change on the dependent variable differ from the that in the bivariate model above?
Note: Please find the Excel sheets attached along with this document.
These questions belong to Statistics and it is about finding the average and standard deviation from the data of presidential election vote shares from 1948 to 2004. Various questions about the data set have been answered in the solution in detail.
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