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Explain Exponential Smoothing Model With Sales Forecast

Question

The table below provides a list of sales figures for this past year for your mountain resort. You want to project a forecast for January of the following year. You want to select from 3 models to make your forecast: 1) a 3-month moving average; 2) a weighted moving average (you believe your weights should be 0.2, 0.3, & 0.5); and 3) an exponential smoothing model in which will use an a = 0.2. Your assumed forecast for January is $32,000.

a. Construct a table that shows each of these forecasts for the current year and provide the forecast for January of this coming year.

b. Using the data given, and your forecasts, which model do you think is the best model for your business?

Month

Previous year sale $

January

32,645

February

31,456

March

30,270

April

33,129

May

34,456

June

35,256

July

36,218

August

35,456

September

34,250

October

32,156

November

30,125

December

32,275

January

 

 

Summary

The question belongs to Statistics and it discusses about forecasting sales for a business using exponential smoothing model. The calculations have been in the Excel sheet and attached along with the solution.

Total Word Count 404

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