# Calculate Forecasting Results With Weighted Moving Averages And Exponential Smoothing

Question

A teacher wanted her students; X, Y, and Z, to forecast the demand for January 2016 and give two measures of performance of their forecasts. More specifically, she wanted each student to distinctly select one of three forecasting methods (two students cannot select the same method); simple moving averages of order k, exponential smoothing, or weighted moving averages, and the required measures are Cumulative Error and MAD using the data below:

Month     Demand   Month     Demand   Month     Demand

 Jul-14 56 Jan-15 72 Jul-15 76 Aug-14 61 Feb-15 75 Aug-15 75 Sep-14 55 Mar-15 70 Sep-15 70 Oct-14 70 Apr-15 69 Oct-15 74 Nov-14 66 May-15 73 Nov-15 76 Dec-14 65 Jun-15 75 Dec-15 80

The three students submitted the following results:

 X Y Z Dec-16 Forecast 76.07 81.00 75.00 Cumulative Error 35.50 23.00 35.75 MAD 3.88 4.00 3.45

The teacher gave one of them full mark, another one got partial credit and one got 0.

1. Who got what and why? Describe your solution strategy and give detailed explanations.
2. b. Ignoring above results, under what conditions will the three methods be identical?
3. c. Give your forecast using adjusted exponential smoothing, with α = 4, β = 0.2, and T2 = 0, and plot it with original data.

Summary

The question belongs to Statistics and discusses about calculation of forecasting results with weighted moving averages, exponential smoothing, etc.

Total Word Count 339

Price: 6.00

OP: 12.00

• Rasha

this is a very good website

• maani

I have 50 questions for the same test your page is showing only 28

• joeanne

• joeanne

hi can anyone help or guide me to my assignments. thanks

• Monik

• Cristina

This solution is perfect ...thanks

• Janete

Hello Allison,I love the 2nd image that you did! I also, had never heard of SumoPaint, is something that I will have to exolpre a bit! I understand completely the 52 (or so) youtube videos that you probably watched. Sometimes they have what you want, sometimes they don't! However, it is always satisfying when you are able to produce something that you have taught yourself. Great job!Debra 0 likes

• Sandeep

Perfect bank of solution.

• Oxana

great !

• Paul Brandon-Fritzius

thanks for the quick response. the solution looks good. :)

• tina Johnson

thnx for the answer. it was perfect. just the way i wanted it.

• Giuseppe

works fine.