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Question
A teacher wanted her students; X, Y, and Z, to forecast the demand for January 2016 and give two measures of performance of their forecasts. More specifically, she wanted each student to distinctly select one of three forecasting methods (two students cannot select the same method); simple moving averages of order k, exponential smoothing, or weighted moving averages, and the required measures are Cumulative Error and MAD using the data below:
Month Demand Month Demand Month Demand
Jul-14 |
56 |
|
Jan-15 |
|
72 |
|
Jul-15 |
|
76 |
Aug-14 |
61 |
|
Feb-15 |
|
75 |
|
Aug-15 |
|
75 |
Sep-14 |
55 |
|
Mar-15 |
|
70 |
|
Sep-15 |
|
70 |
Oct-14 |
70 |
|
Apr-15 |
|
69 |
|
Oct-15 |
|
74 |
Nov-14 |
66 |
|
May-15 |
|
73 |
|
Nov-15 |
|
76 |
Dec-14 |
65 |
|
Jun-15 |
|
75 |
|
Dec-15 |
|
80 |
The three students submitted the following results:
|
X |
Y |
Z |
Dec-16 Forecast |
76.07 |
81.00 |
75.00 |
Cumulative Error |
35.50 |
23.00 |
35.75 |
MAD |
3.88 |
4.00 |
3.45 |
The teacher gave one of them full mark, another one got partial credit and one got 0.
Summary
The question belongs to Statistics and discusses about calculation of forecasting results with weighted moving averages, exponential smoothing, etc.
Total Word Count 339
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