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Scenario Planning is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is a model for learning about the future by understanding the nature and impact of the most uncertain and important driving forces affecting the world.
Many of the regular methods for strategy development assume that the world in three to ten years’ time will not significantly differ from that of today and that an organization will have a large impact on its environment: they assume they can mould the future. Scenario planning however assumes that the future can differ greatly from what we know today.
The method is based on creating a series of ‘different futures’ generated from a combination of known factors, such as demographics, with plausible alternative political, economic, social, technical, legal and environmental (PESTLE) trends which are key driving forces. The technique can also include anticipatory thinking elements that are difficult to formalize, such as subjective interpretation of facts, shifts in values, new regulations or inventions.
It is a group process which encourages knowledge exchange and development of mutual deeper understanding of central issues important to the future of the organization. Although the method is most widely used as a strategic management tool, it can also be used for enabling other types of group discussion about a common future.
The thought processes involved in getting to the scenarios have the dual purpose of increasing knowledge of the environment in which you operate and widening the participant’s perception of possible future events- encouraging them to ‘think the unthinkable’. For each of these worlds, appropriate action plans can be considered.
Scenarios provide alternative views of the future. They identify some significant events, main actors and their motivations and they convey how the world functions. Building and using scenarios can help us explore what the future might look like and the likely changes of living in it.
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